Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) is on the slide

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) is on the slide

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) is on the slide

The EUR/USD has had a week to forget for the most part, but the good news is that we saw a bit of a bounce on Friday.

The main story of the week was the changing guidance from the ECB and more bank loans, in a bid to help bolster the struggling Eurozone economy. Any hopes of a rate rise in 2019 were all but dashed as Mario Draghi and his men pushed out the guidance for a rate hike once again. That saw the EUR/USD tumble until we finally saw a bounce off the 1.1200 level.

The bounce was certainly helped by a weaker than expected jobs report out of the US that weighed heavily on the USD. That saw the 1.1200 level act as support, but the question remains, how long can it hold?

The EUR/USD has been following technical support and resistance with 1.1200 the major support.

I am expecting more downside to come here for the Euro and I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see a test of 1.1000 as there is actually very little support below the current levels. Of course, we will see some at 1.1100. That is all assuming the USD can hold the highs for now.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.4280. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 146 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -196.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.005 at 1.124. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 9% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.119 1.125 1.118 1.124 136,434

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 140,570 143,430 143,800

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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