Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) is likely to trade sideways

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) is likely to trade sideways

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) is likely to trade sideways

While we indicated last Friday (22 Mar) that “in order to maintain the current momentum, EUR could not afford to ‘dither’ as it would greatly decrease the prospect for further EUR strength”, the subsequent large decline of more than -0.50% (NY close of 1.1313, -0.52%) came as a surprise. As highlighted, a break of the 1.1330 ‘key support’ would indicate that EUR is not ready for a sustained up-move.

The recent price action wherein EUR failed to extend its decline after dropping sharply below 1.1200 earlier this month (low of 1.1174 on 07 Mar) and last Friday’s rapid and sharp drop (after rising strongly to 1.1448 on Wed, 20 Mar) have resulted in an unclear outlook. Most indicators have turned ‘flat’ which suggest EUR could trade sideways between 1.1174 and 1.1448 for a protracted period. From the perspective of a couple of weeks, a 1.1220/1.1400 range is likely enough to contain the expected sideways trading in EUR.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.6931. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 157 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.131. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.129 1.133 1.128 1.131 111,386

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.13 1.15
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 143,087 149,596 143,087

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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