Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) investors move away from the greenback
The American currency remained the weakest this Tuesday, leading EUR/USD to advance to 1.0984, its highest in almost two weeks. The market mood began improving during the Asian session, as China published its March Trade Balance, which posted a surplus of $19.9B, better than anticipated, with exports and imports in the same month also beating the market’s expectations. Neither the EU not the US published relevant macroeconomic numbers, with the focus still on the pandemic developments.
As for coronavirus-related numbers, positive signs continued to emerge from Europe, with the number of new cases and the death toll both decreasing particularly in the most troubled countries. Furthermore, there are some modest signs of improvement also in the US. New York Governor Cuomo said that it appears “the worst is over,” adding, however, that they need to “continue to be smart.” Cuomo is engaged in a battle with President Trump, who pledges for a sooner than recommended re-opening of the economy.
This Wednesday, the US will release March Retail Sales, which are expected to have fallen by 8.0% when compared to a month earlier. The figures are meant to reflect part of the US lockdown but could be far worse than anticipated.
EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0980 heading into the Asian opening, stable above 1.0950, the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily advance. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is within moving averages, with the 20 and 100 SMA aiming slightly higher below the current level and the 20 SMA flat near the next Fibonacci resistance. The Momentum indicator remains directionless around its mid-line, while the RSI stabilized around 63. The bullish potential is still limited as long as it holds below 1.1025.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.07.
The projected closing price is: 1.10.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.8083. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.096. Volume was 73% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.098 1.099 1.095 1.096 23,283
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.09 1.10 1.11
Volatility: 10 14 8
Volume: 100,430 107,981 79,786
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.