Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) investors eye Powell
EUR/USD is showing little movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1404, up 0.10% on the day. On the release front, there are no major German or eurozone events. The U.S. posts minor manufacturing and housing reports, but the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before a congressional committee. On Thursday, Germany releases Preliminary CPI, and the U.S. will post Advance GDP and unemployment claims.
With a lack of major events on either side of the pond, the markets will have time to focus on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. There were no surprises from Powell’s testimony before a senate committee on Tuesday, as Powell preached patience with regard to changes in interest rates. Powell stated that the Fed was in “no rush to make a judgment” and made reference to “conflicting signals in the economy”. The labor picture remains bright, with strong hiring and low unemployment. At the same time, consumer spending and housing data have been soft. The markets are expecting the Fed to remain on the sidelines in May and June, meaning that the first hike of 2019 will not come before the second half of the year.
With President Trump waiving his threat to impose new tariffs on China next week, risk appetite remains strong. There is even talk of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi at the end of March if the sides reach an agreement. However, significant questions remain. With almost no news about the substance of the talks, it remains unclear if China will agree to substantial structural changes in trade, as demanded by the United States. Another question mark is whether the current set of tariffs will be completely removed if a deal is reached. If not, market enthusiasm could slip, as the tariffs have caused enormous turmoil in international trade and dampened global growth. Still, if the sides reach a deal, it would be positive news for the struggling eurozone economy and could trigger gains for the euro.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.15.
The projected lower bound is: 1.12.
The projected closing price is: 1.14.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.8006. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 139 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 132.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.137. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.140 1.140 1.136 1.137 138,087
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 3 8 8
Volume: 141,921 141,861 144,803
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.
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