Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks

After a tough week, EUR/USD has started the week with slight gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1235, up 0.15% on the day. On the release front, it’s a busy day. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs missed their estimates, with readings of 44.1 and 44.7, respectively. The Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate inflation in March came in at 1.5%, just shy of the estimate of 1.4%. In the U.S., retail sales are expected to tick up to 0.3%. On Tuesday, the eurozone releases PPI and the U.S. posts durable goods orders.

German and eurozone manufacturing sectors remain mired in contraction territory. This is largely due to the global trade war, which has lowered the demand for exports, such as German cars and auto parts. German manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.1, losing ground for an eighth straight month. This reading was the lowest since 2012. The all-eurozone release has also been steadily falling and is pointing to significant weakness in manufacturing.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks, which continues to affect the markets. The negotiations between the sides continues and there have been reports of progress. However, optimism waned on Thursday, after a senior U.S. official said that it could be months before a deal is reached. As long as uncertainty continues to swirl around the talks, traders can expect swings in the currency markets.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.8006. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 162 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -130.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.121. Volume was 21% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.122 1.125 1.120 1.121 114,449

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.13 1.15
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 141,226 147,324 142,425

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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