Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) in ongoing correction
The price of EUR/USD continues to push lower, falling below $1.13 support and heading to the November low at $1.1215. Further declines bring $1.1118 into view.
Since September, substantial rallies have met with trendline resistance, and any push back towards $1.143 could well meet the same fate. So far, no change has been seen in the relentless downward move, but a rally above $1.132 might provide hope of a near-term rebound.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.
The projected upper bound is: 1.14.
The projected lower bound is: 1.11.
The projected closing price is: 1.13.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=) this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.
During an uptrend the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.7611. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 128 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -136.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.128. Volume was 52% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.128 1.129 1.125 1.128 69,066
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 5 8 8
Volume: 148,904 144,242 144,123
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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