Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Headlines on Geopolitical Events To Dominate Price Momentum Across March

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Headlines on Geopolitical Events To Dominate Price Momentum Across March

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Headlines on Geopolitical Events To Dominate Price Momentum Across March

In the month ahead the early half of will focus on Sino-U.S. trade talk as US President Donald Trump gave contradicting comments in the last week of February. While he first tweeted trade talks were proceeding in a favorable direction, following the fall out between denuclearisation talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, he is likely to go forward with plans to impose tariffs if US demands are not met by China. UK parliament is also yet to vote on no-deal Brexit and second Brexit referendum or delaying article 50 deadlines.

The scenario from a fundamental perspective paints a dovish picture for price momentum in the month of March 2019. Unless deadlines are extended or positive resolution for is found in the days ahead, the market is likely to see rangebound price action with dovish bias. However, in case there is a fall out in trade talks between China & U.S.A. or the UK goes forward with no-deal Brexit, the pair is likely to see a sharp decline in price action with the price falling towards multi-year lows near the lower half of 1.11 handle last seen around May 2017.

Investors will also be on the watch out for US tariff on the European auto market. Despite macro data outcome having high potential to influence directional bias as FY2018-19 comes to an end this month news driven momentum based on proceedings of geopolitical events will continue to dictate overall price momentum. When looking from a technical perspective, the pair faces strong supply near above mentioned price levels. But immediate directional bias is skewed to the downside. As the trading session opens for the first week of March 2019, the EURO is likely to continue declining unless the headlines changes the directional bias. Both RSI & Stochastic indicators are currently near mid-levels with signal lines pointing towards the oversold region in daily and weekly charts.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.14.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.0403. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 141 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.137. Volume was 7% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.137 1.141 1.135 1.137 156,734

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 2 7 8
Volume: 144,385 141,465 144,638

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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