Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) has weakened and fallen to key level

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) has weakened and fallen to key level

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) has weakened and fallen to key level

The weakening of the Euro after the G20 Summit, and subsequent announcement of Christine Lagarde as the next President of the European Central Bank (ECB), is unlikely to extend suggest the charts.

The Euro fell after the G20 as improved investor sentiment reduced safe-haven flows, a dynamic that has been supportive of the Euro of late, then Lagarde’s appointment further pressured the currency as she is seen as a monetary policy ‘dove’ who will maintain the ECB’s current run of ultra-easy monetary policy which has supressed the currency’s value.

The EUR/USD is currently quoted at 1.1290, but had been as high as 1.1412 last week. 

The good news for Euro ‘bulls’, however, is that the weakness is probably just passing. Charts indicate compelling technical evidence that the uptrend will probably resume.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.5959. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 229 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.128. Volume was 36% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.128 1.131 1.127 1.128 69,700

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.13 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 70,849 90,530 127,814

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

The following two tabs change content below.
'Want to learn more with Nick Lesson? Bizintra offers world-class education, trade signals with a success rate of 80% to date, daily live webinars and a student support community. The best part of this is that they offer a limited number of broker sponsorships each month, meaning a broker will pay 100% of your course fees. Why delay? head over to their website bizintra.com for more information and to arrange a call with one of their senior analysts who can provide you with all the details'

Latest posts by Nick Leeson (see all)

You must be logged in to post comments :  
CONNECT WITH