Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Hangs Out At Fair Value

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Hangs Out At Fair Value

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Hangs Out At Fair Value

The Euro has done nothing on Thursday as we await the jobs figures on the United States. This makes quite a bit of sense, because quite frankly at such a market moving event. Ultimately, this market is sitting just above the 50 day EMA bit more importantly we are hanging around the 1.11 handle. As we have been consolidating between 1.12 on the top in the 1.10 level on the bottom, it’s obvious that we are essentially halfway between the two, meaning it is essentially “fair value.” At this point, the market looks very likely to wait for the job figures to make its next decision.

I suspect that you have to play the market as one that is still consolidating but when you look at the last couple of weeks, it certainly seems as if the Euro is trying to break out to the upside. If we can move above the 1.1250 level, then it’s a clear break out to the upside and we should go looking towards the 1.14 handle eventually. To the downside, if we were to break down below the 1.1075 handle, it would be a “lower low” that the market would have to pay attention to. At that point I would anticipate a move to the 1.10 level where there should be plenty of support. A break down below there obviously would be very negative for the Euro but at this point there is nothing on the chart that suggests it won’t hold. With that, we have clear boundaries to trade this currency pair.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.1577. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. (ERROR: Function did not return a value)

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.110. Volume was 8% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.110 1.112 1.109 1.110 70,476
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.12 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 6 5 6
Volume: 53,436 58,787 79,342

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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