Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forecast of 124.8 pointing to rising consumer sentiment

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forecast of 124.8 pointing to rising consumer sentiment

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forecast of 124.8 pointing to rising consumer sentiment

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate got off to a choppy start this week with the cross rising to local resistance at $1.13675 before dipping sharply to sub $1.134 only to reverse later in the session and climb once more to local resistance.

Tuesday’s session saw the Fiber trading at $1.13540, flat from open.

On the data front, German consumer climate figures released earlier in the session printed an on-forecast, static, 10.8.

According to the GfK release, “The mood of consumers paints a mixed picture in February 2019. While income expectations remain stable, the propensity to buy has lost ground again following the gains made last month. Economic expectations, in contrast, continue their steep downward spiral. Since the propensity to save has also dropped further, GfK predicts that the consumer climate in March will remain unchanged compared to the previous month at 10.8 points.”

For the Dollar, Fed Chairman Powell is due to testify on the central bank’s monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee (1445 GMT) with Powell expected to reiterate the Fed’s ‘on hold’ stance.

UPDATE: The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate reached a two-week best over the course of Monday’s trading, with further gains possible according to some analysts.

“Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill tomorrow to testify before Congress” notes Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management.

“His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY / 14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.14.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.9687. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 138 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 108.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.135. Volume was 78% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.136 1.137 1.135 1.135 31,384

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 4 8 8
Volume: 132,440 140,417 144,378

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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