Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Firming Ahead of Major PMI Results

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Firming Ahead of Major PMI Results

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Firming Ahead of Major PMI Results

Despite the Federal Reserve continuing to indicate that it will keep US monetary policy paused for the time being, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is still steadily climbing today. The Euro (EUR) is benefitting from US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Since opening this week at the level of 1.1054, EUR/USD has been trending with an upside bias. While movement has been mixed, EUR/USD has been generally sustaining most of its gains.

Near the beginning of the week, EUR/USD touched on a fortnight best level of 1.1088, and the pair was trending just below those levels again at the time of writing.

The US Dollar has been weakened by concerns that the US economy will keep slowing amid the US-China trade war, due to fresh speculation that US-China trade negotiations could collapse.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Benefits from Rival Weakness Ahead of Key Data

While the Euro has been unable to strengthen significantly due to lasting concerns about the health of the Eurozone economy and the strength of some rivals like the Pound (GBP), the shared currency is gaining against its biggest rival this week.

Due to the negative correlation shared between the Euro and the US Dollar, the Euro has been one of the currencies benefitting the most strongly from the US Dollar’s mixed movement in recent sessions.

This is despite a lack of notably strong Eurozone data this week so far, though investors are becoming a little more optimistic that the Eurozone economy is showing signs of recovering from months of slowdown.

For now, the Euro is benefitting from weakness in the US Dollar as Euro investors await major Eurozone data due for publication tomorrow.

Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Traders Await Friday’s Major Ecostats

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is on track to sustain gains this week, but that could change depending on the results of a slew of ecostats due for publication tomorrow.

Most of this week’s most influential Eurozone data will be published tomorrow morning, including German growth stats and Eurozone PMI projections.

Germany’s final Q3 growth rate report is expected to confirm that Germany avoided a recession this year. If German growth prints a contraction, the Euro could plummet as a surprise recession would be confirmed.

If German data meets projections though, markets will be looking to the Eurozone’s November PMI projections. Germany’s manufacturing PMI projections could be particularly influential as they will give investors a better idea of if the German factory sector is recovering.

Some of the day’s US data could be influential as well. Markit’s US PMI projections, as well as Michigan consumer sentiment stats for November, could cause some late-week Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate movement.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.1250. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 57 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.106. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.107 1.110 1.105 1.106 65,835
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 3 5 6
Volume: 63,172 71,421 94,459

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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