Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Firm, Dollar Softens

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Firm, Dollar Softens

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Firm, Dollar Softens

A slightly busier day of economic data awaits on Tuesday.

Starting off with some German industrial data we have factory orders and industrial production. This is important because of the number 1 European economies’ reliance on automobile sales.

Next is the UK’s Halifax House Price Index, which while important for understanding the health of the UK economy is unlikely to move the Pound too much given the focus on Brexit.

The BoE’s Cunliffe will speak shortly after the release, but the MPC has become fairly redundant at the moment (Haldane talks later in the day as well).

Analyst Preview: Lloyds Bank

“Bank of England MPC members Cunliffe (10:20BST) and Haldane (17:30BST) are scheduled to speak today, following last week’s policy announcement in which there was a unanimous decision to keep interest rates at 0.75%. As one of the more hawkish members, comments from Haldane will be particularly interesting. With the fog of Brexit yet to lift, the Bank remains firmly in wait-and-see mode for now, but it signalled scope for moderately higher rates over the forecast horizon to keep inflation around the 2% target.”

The US session kicks off with the first of the FOMC’s speakers at 12 pm, with Quarles speaking later at 16:35. Job openings for March and the API weekly crude stock round out the US data.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.2728. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 188 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.121. Volume was 66% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.120 1.122 1.119 1.121 46,159

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.13 1.14
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 100,361 126,550 137,769

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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