Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Falls Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Falls Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Falls Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Today’s Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has slumped, with the pairing currently trading at around $1.1045.

The US Dollar (USD) edged up this morning ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting in which the central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

While divisions exist over the necessity for a rate cut, there seems to be a general consensus for a reduction in borrowing costs.

Commerzbank currency strategist Thu Lan Nguyen noted:

‘The focus will be on the policy outlook and the Fed’s dot plots, and with market positioning broadly neutral, it should be a quiet session for the Dollar.’

Following the Fed’s rate decision, markets will be interested to see if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) follows the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) by implementing its own rate cut.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.4276. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.005 at 1.102. Volume was 21% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.107 1.107 1.101 1.102 64,867
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.13
Volatility: 7 6 6
Volume: 78,282 82,779 111,331

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 51 periods.

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