Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Eurozone inflation is expected to climb to 1.7% in April, marking a 5-month high

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Eurozone inflation is expected to climb to 1.7% in April, marking a 5-month high

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Eurozone inflation is expected to climb to 1.7% in April, marking a 5-month high

Eurozone inflation is expected to climb to 1.7% in April, marking a 5-month high. The stronger reading is a reflection of higher oil prices, which has pushed prices higher. Inflation is moving closer to the ECB target of close to 2 percent, and if the upward trend continues, ECB rate-setters will have to give some thought to raising interest rate levels. The bank recently announced that no rate hikes were planned before the spring of 2020, and this dovish stance has made the euro less attractive to investors.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has led his Socialist party to victory, but he will have to share the spoils in order to form a new government. The Socialists won 123 seats of the 350 seats in Congress, and should be able to form a stable coalition in the next few weeks. The far-right VOX party made gains and will enter parliament, but investors seem pleased with the results, which should ensure stability for the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy.

In the U.S, the Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines, maintaining the benchmark rate. The rate statement noted that inflation pressures are muted and that the FOMC would remain patient regarding future rate movements. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this stance at a follow-up press conference, saying “we don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction”. The Fed is already on record as saying it does not expect to raise rates before 2020, and with inflation levels persistently below the Fed’s target of 2.0%, the Fed can afford to continue its wait-and-see stance.

The U.S. ended the week with mixed employment numbers. Wage growth edged up to 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. However, nonfarm payrolls sparkled, climbing to 263 thousand, up from 196 thousand a month earlier. The reading easily beat the forecast of 181 thousand.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.7661. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 187 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.003 at 1.117. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.117 1.119 1.116 1.117 1,053

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.13 1.14
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 97,860 126,387 137,790

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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