Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Economic Data has been Improving

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Economic Data has been Improving

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Economic Data has been Improving

The forex economic calendar has been light for the Euro in recent days, not atypical once we make it past the first few days of the month. Overall, Eurozone economic data has been steadily improving over the past few weeks, at least when trying to measure releases relative to expectations. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone, a gauge of economic data momentum, is at -27.7, from -79 on October 10 and -53 on August 8.

ECB RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS EVAPORATE

There has been a good deal of pushback around the ECB in recent weeks, insofar as calls for less monetary stimulus and more fiscal stimulus (cough, Germany) have dominated the news wires. With new ECB President Christine Lagarde seeking to clear divisions among ECB Governing Council members – a result of former ECB President Mario Draghi ramming through his easing package at the September ECB meeting – it seems likely that the ECB will be sitting on its hands for the time being.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.1745. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 47 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -146.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.105. Volume was 7% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.107 1.109 1.103 1.105 84,032
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 5 6 6
Volume: 70,276 75,223 98,886

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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