Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ECB President Mario Draghi had warned of sustained downside risk for the global economy

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ECB President Mario Draghi had warned of sustained downside risk for the global economy

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ECB President Mario Draghi had warned of sustained downside risk for the global economy

The EUR/USD experienced a minor correction on the early hours of the Thursday trading session following an escalation in the US Dollar Index. The index had soared on the grounds of an increasing dovish outlook of the major world banks.

Yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi had warned of sustained downside risk for the global economy. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rates unchanged but hinted of a likely rate cut to happen soon before and in November. The Cable pair remained subtle at 1.3187 level following the UK PM May’s proclamation that she will get down from her premiership if MPs backed her twice-rejected deal for a Brexit.

The Simple Moving Averages (SMA) for the major days were above the EUR/USD trading level. This observation invokes a bearish stance on the pair movement for the day. The pair had touched the resistance level of 1.1267 in the last few days and has a higher probability of it reaching this level again during the day. There is no as such momentum noted in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 2.5641. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 160 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -126.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.123. Volume was 63% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.124 1.126 1.123 1.123 53,345

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.13 1.15
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 129,446 145,949 142,219

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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