Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ECB Minutes Show Bank’s Concerns, but Unlikely to Make Changes in March

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ECB Minutes Show Bank’s Concerns, but Unlikely to Make Changes in March

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ECB Minutes Show Bank’s Concerns, but Unlikely to Make Changes in March

The release of the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes showed policymakers had growing concerns. However, it’s thought unlikely the central bank will blink at its March meeting and make any immediate changes to its monetary policy. It’s expected new projections will be made available in the March meeting which may help offer some indication as to whether the downturn in the currency bloc will be fleeting, or a more permanent fixture.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will release its accounts of the Governing Council’s January meeting this afternoon which may influence the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) and Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rates. Meanwhile, Brexit negotiations and developments are likely to continue influencing Sterling.

Across the Pond, the US Durable Goods Orders stats will be out this afternoon, with a rebound in December forecast. The previous month’s figure resided at 0.70%, but December is expected to show a more upbeat 1.80% which could support the US Dollar exchange rates (USD/EUR, USD/GBP). However, any developments in trade talks with China may also influence the Greenback.

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading at levels of 1.1354. The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate is trading at 0.8682.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.2055. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 135 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.133. Volume was 11% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.134 1.137 1.132 1.133 160,757

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 6 8 8
Volume: 142,501 143,021 144,832

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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