Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) drops through support zone

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) drops through support zone

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) drops through support zone

EUR/USD is pushing below the key support zone, around $1.15, that has held since the end of May. A close below $1.15 would mark a bearish development, opening the way to $1.13 in the first instance, and then down to $1.1119.

A rebound could well see the price move back towards the highs of Wednesday and Thursday, around $1.1640, but even here fresh selling could well contain any further upside. Beyond this, the $1.1750 high from late July marks a key level that needs to be broken for any sustained bullish momentum to develop.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.9954. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 27.80. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 55 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -148.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.135. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.134 1.135 1.134 1.135 7,203

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.15 1.16 1.20
Volatility: 8 9 9
Volume: 125,421 147,008 131,293

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 5.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that EUR= is currently in an oversold condition.

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