Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) downtrend to probably continue
The Euro-to-Dollar rate is trading at around 1.1024 at the start of what promises to be a busy week for the pair owing to a crucial decision at the European Central Bank. While the ECB should provide volatility on Thursday, our technical studies of the charts are showing the short-term trend remains bearish and likely to extend.
The 4 hour chart – used to determine the short-term outlook, which includes the coming week or next 5 days – shows the pair has rebounded after reaching new multi year lows of 1.0926, however, the rebound is insufficient to signal a reversal and the downtrend remains intact.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.12.
The projected upper bound is: 1.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1.09.
The projected closing price is: 1.10.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.2083. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.102. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.102 1.103 1.102 1.102 367
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.13
Volatility: 5 6 6
Volume: 76,804 80,862 113,858
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 44 periods.
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