Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) dipped initially but has failed to hang onto the losses

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) dipped initially but has failed to hang onto the losses

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) dipped initially but has failed to hang onto the losses

The Euro has broken down during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching below to the 1.11 handle. This is an area that cost a bit of support though, and the candlestick is starting to look rather bullish. However, I don’t necessarily think that it is a market that is going to take off to the upside because when you look at the longer-term charts, we have made these moves several times over the last 18 months. The Euro has gone a bit parabolic, so it’s very likely that the market will continue to see a bit of indecision in this area. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA above is going to cause significant resistance as it is a longer-term trend signal.

If the market can break down below the 1.11 handle, then it opens up a move down to the 1.1033 handle, which is essentially where the 50-day EMA is. At this point, there should be more support as well.

This pair does tend to grind and chop more than anything else, but it has a negative bias to it as it continues to drift lower over the longer term. Ultimately, if the market continues lower it would be a 50% retracement test that showed signs of resistance yet again. That is rather common, and something that a lot of traders will be paying attention to. If that does in fact come to fruition, we could see the euro go as low as 1.09 eventually. Obviously, it’s going to take some time to get there though, as this pair doesn’t typically move very quickly.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.0003. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.00. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 37 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.113. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.113 1.113 1.113 1.113 1,106
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 5 6 6
Volume: 72,490 76,210 103,006

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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