Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Digs into Support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Digs into Support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Digs into Support

Going along with the US Dollar’s check of a key resistance level, EURUSD has started to grind around a key support zone. This is the same zone that’s been in-play to varying degrees since last November; and this runs from Fibonacci levels at 1.1187-1.1212. The fact that the pair is holding on to this support as USD strength came rushing back last week highlights the attractiveness that EURUSD can carry for short-side USD scenarios. Similar to what was seen in the first week of June, a run of USD-weakness creates a squeeze scenario for long-term shorts. But, as fresh highs are created, stops are taken-out, and this helps to reset sentiment a bit as price action gyrates-higher: As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, if the pair can take out the 1.1500 handle the likely large number of trailed stops that sit above that price, the pair may finally be able to take-out the 1.1000 psychological level.

So, at this point, EURUSD can remain as one of the more attractive short-USD candidates; and not necessarily because of any positive appeal around the Euro, but more related to the elongated down-trend that’s vulnerable to squeeze scenarios.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.8892. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 220 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.123. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.122 1.123 1.122 1.123 2,050

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 6 5 7
Volume: 64,455 96,811 130,511

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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