Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could weaken further to the next support at 1.1220
There is not much to add to last Friday’s (09 Nov, spot at 1.1365) update. As highlighted, the sharp and rapid drop from last Wednesday (07 Nov) peak of 1.1500 indicates there is scope for EUR to retest the major 1.1300 support.
The prospect for a break of this level has improved and an NY closing below this major support would suggest EUR could weaken further to the next support at 1.1220. All in, we continue to adopt a ‘negative’ view unless EUR can move back above the 1.1410 ‘key resistance’ (level was at 1.1450 last Friday).
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.15.
The projected upper bound is: 1.14.
The projected lower bound is: 1.11.
The projected closing price is: 1.12.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.0896. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -246.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.012 at 1.122. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.133 1.133 1.121 1.122 129,188
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.15 1.18
Volatility: 9 8 8
Volume: 143,921 134,541 138,891
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 5.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.
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