Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could move lower

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could move lower

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could move lower

The Italian budget aside, since EU inspired political wobbles do tend to have a very short half-life effect on Euro sentiment,  higher US interest rate expectation amidst the backdrop of divergence between the Fed and the ECB, even more so after the tepid Eurozone inflation print on Friday, will underpin US dollar sentiment.

The eurozone economic recovery is so uneven that the EURUSD could move lower for no other reason that the robust US economic story. Traders will probably look to re-engage EURUSD shorts on upticks.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.

The projected upper bound is: 1.18.

The projected lower bound is: 1.15.

The projected closing price is: 1.16.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.0303. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 32 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -104.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.161. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 17% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.161 1.163 1.160 1.161 2,497

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.17 1.16 1.19
Volatility: 8 8 9
Volume: 131,871 136,381 135,742

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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