Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could give way to next target at 1.1205

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could give way to next target at 1.1205

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) could give way to next target at 1.1205

The EUR/USD pair keeps knocking at the door of the circa 1.1300 hard floor, and the risks are building that it could finally break below it in the week ahead.

The pair touched and bounced off the floor in October and after recovering to its November 7 highs, which were a hair’s breadth short of 1.1500 it relapsed and has since fallen back down to trade in the 1.13s again, within close proximity of the long-term floor.

For confirmation of such a break we would first want to see a breakdown below 1.1280, for the purposes of confirmation, however assuming such that happened, the exchange rate would probably be expected to continue lower to a target at 1.1205 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated and touted to provide resistance, if only temporarily at that level.

The imperfect ‘gravestone doji’ Japanese candlestick pattern at the November 7 highs is, as the name suggests, a bearish signal often found at market peaks, and this, in particular, lends the chart a bearish tilt.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.15.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.4636. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -155.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.131. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.133 1.133 1.131 1.131 672

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.15 1.18
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 131,069 131,970 138,249

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 4.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.

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