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Thursday, July 29, 2021

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues to March Higher at $1.11

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues to March Higher at $1.11

The greenback remained somewhat on the back foot yesterday, possibly reflecting the impact of month end flows. while risk appetite has eased modestly within the past 24 hours, the improvement in sentiment evident on markets since Monday has also been a factor behind the softer greenback this week.

Data-wise, yesterday the headline European Union sentiment index for May rose slightly, providing some further proof that downturn could have bottomed out. However, it did disappoint versus forecast downside (67.5 vs 70.3). Overall, there was no euro reaction.

In the US, weekly jobless claims printed in line with expectations (2.1m). this means that circa 41m workers have filed for benefits since mid-March.

On the plus side, there was an enormous drop in continuing claims (25m to 21m), possibly suggestive of nascent signs of re-hiring as parts of the economy re-open. the release, though, had no notable impact on the greenback.

In level terms, the softer tone to the greenback is mirrored in EUR/USD opening this morning up at the $1.11 threshold, its highest level since mid-March. At the same time, cable (GBP/USD) has risen back up to trade higher than the $1.23 handle. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP remains within the higher half of the 89-90p range.

Today, the flash reading of May HICP is due in the Eurozone.

Headline inflation could have eased to 0.1%, though euro impact is probably going to be minimal.

Elsewhere, April consumption figures are due in the United States, though, again, the release might not generate much of a greenback reaction. Instead, the currency and market sentiment could prove more sensitive to geo-political headlines, with President Trump due to announce new policies against China today.

Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate

Euro/Sterling Exchange Rate

Sterling/US Dollar Exchange Rate

Today’s Forex Rates

FX Polls

Economic Events

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.3200. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 59 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 156.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.113. Volume was 61% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open      High       Low      Close       Volume
1.110     1.115      1.109    1.113       41,221
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period       50-period        200-period
Close:           1.10            1.09             1.10
Volatility:      7               10               9
Volume:          103,058         113,071          84,533

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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