Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continues to grind sideways
The Euro has rallied a bit during the week but has also given back quite a bit of the gains to form a less than impressive candlestick. As we continue to grind sideways it suggests that the market is going to continue to show signs of exhaustion after rallies, and we are most certainly in a very negative trend. Beyond that, the United States has released an extraordinarily strong employment figure, and that has certainly weighed upon the Euro on Friday. At this point, it looks like we are going to continue to chop lower in noisy trading, and longer-term sellers continue to be in the driver seat. With that being the case, I believe it’s only a matter of time before we break down through the 1.10 level and go looking towards the 1.09 level.
If we were to break down below the 1.09 level, then it opens up the possibility of filling the gap down at the 1.0750 level. That’s an area that has not been filled yet, so it would make quite a bit of technical sense to get down there. I don’t have any interest in trying to buy this pair, and I think that recently on the weekly chart we had seen a bit of a “brick wall” at the 1.12 level. At this point it’s obvious that the Euro continues to be sold every time it rallies, and that’s even more clear on the daily charts as well. Granted, it’s not exactly clean action but with the ECB ready to loosen monetary policy and the Federal Reserve on the sidelines, it makes sense that this pair continues lower.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.
The projected upper bound is: 1.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.3270. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 69 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.105. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.105 1.105 1.105 1.105 23
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.12
Volatility: 5 4 6
Volume: 53,545 67,688 89,239
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.
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