Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues To Fall Drastically
The Euro has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but fallen apart again as we are pressing the 1.0850 level as I look at this chart. This is a horrific looking chart, and at this point it’s likely that the market is going to go looking towards the gap underneath at the 1.0750 level. At this point, with negative yielding bonds in the EU and the ECB jumping in and doing more of the same buying, the reality is that a lot of foreigners are throwing money in the US treasury markets, as we have positive yields there. Furthermore, the stock market continues to attract a lot of inflow from overseas so by necessity, this pair continues to fall.
Breaking down below the 1.0 level was in fact a very negative sign, as it not only broke to a fresh, new low but it also broke the back of a hammer which of course is a very negative sign as well. Furthermore, I believe that rallies will continue to be sold into and the 1.09 level should offer plenty of resistance. Granted, we are a bit oversold at this point but that’s how this pair moves. It simply does nothing forever, and then falls apart for a couple of weeks. Then a grind sideways for three or four months, and then shoot straight up for three weeks. That’s just the nature of the pair as it is visited by so many high-frequency traders. Looking at this chart, the only thing you can do is sell rallies in the short term.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.10.
The projected upper bound is: 1.09.
The projected lower bound is: 1.07.
The projected closing price is: 1.08.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 9 black candles for a net of 8 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.1402. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 23.78. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 118 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -135.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.084. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.084 1.084 1.084 1.084 2,916
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.09 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 3 5 5
Volume: 64,709 58,530 72,791
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of EUR= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that EUR= is currently in an oversold condition.