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Thursday, June 24, 2021

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues To Chug Along

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues To Chug Along

The Euro continues to rally against the US dollar, in what can be best described as a parabolic move. 700 pips in a week or so is massive when it comes to this pair. That being said though, buying the Euro up here is certainly chasing the trade, and that is one of the best ways to lose money in the Forex markets. The markets will continue to see a lot of back and forth when it comes to risk appetite but clearly the biggest thing that people are paying attention to right now is the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see upward pressure over the longer term, but sooner or later there will need to be some type of pullback. Look at a move towards the 1.1250 area as a potential entry point.

The longer-term move for this pair is probably towards the 1.14 level, and quite frankly the way it’s been moving it could happen rather quickly. However, I do think that we will eventually pull back to build up the necessary momentum to not only get there but break out to the upside. This is a pair that typically doesn’t move very much, so this of course has been extraordinary as of late. The markets will undoubtedly pullback, and when they do you need to be ready to be able to put money to work.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 1 black candles for a net of 7 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.4967. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 77.16. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 129.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.005 at 1.134. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 213% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.129 1.136 1.128 1.134 1,501
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.11
Volatility: 8 7 6
Volume: 93,285 70,730 72,201

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that EUR= is currently in an overbought condition.

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