Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues To Be Very Noisy

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues To Be Very Noisy

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Continues To Be Very Noisy

The Euro broke higher during the trading session in a significant move on Friday. We broke above the 200 day EMA, but at this point we are pressing a certain amount of resistance. The question now is whether or not we can break above the downtrend line, or if we can break above the 1.12 handle? Ultimately, this is a market that I think that will have a lot of questions answer soon, and as we are near the 1.12 handle and significant resistance that has shown itself previously, the question now is what happens next? At this point, if we get a daily close above the 1.12 handle then I am willing to start buying, but one thing that you should keep in mind is that we are heading through the middle of the holidays, so volume will have been a bit of an issue.

To the downside, the 50 day EMA will cause a significant amount of support based upon the recent price action, but if we break down below there then we are likely to go to the 1.10 level underneath, which is the bottom of the overall consolidation area that we have been trading in. Ultimately, if we were to break down below the 1.10 level it would continue the longer-term downtrend. I think that between now and when traders come back to work somewhere near January 6, we should see a lot of erratic movements and you can’t read too much into it because of the lack of volume. However, once we get to that point in time, then you can take some of these moves a bit more serious.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.6082. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.06. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 147.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.118. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.117 1.118 1.117 1.118 31
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 5 4 5
Volume: 41,932 60,381 82,610

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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