Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continues falling in descending channel

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continues falling in descending channel

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continues falling in descending channel

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate is trading at 1.1139 at the start of the new week after falling about 0.9% in the week before.

The U.S. Dollar remains an outperformer in global FX with investors noting the U.S. economy continues to firmly outperform global rivals, a view confirmed by last week’s knock-out GDP data. The Euro is meanwhile hampered by the Eurozone’s seemingly entrenched economic underperformance, with traders expressing disappointment that the region’s largest economy – Germany – has yet to shown signs that it is making a concrete turnaround.

The Euro has other risk factors to weigh, including concerns about the threat of U.S. tariffs on the European auto industry, uncertainty ahead of EU and Spanish elections.

For EUR/USD, the technical picture is now decidedly bearish after last week’s declines. The pair continued to fall within the descending channel after briefly touching the upper borderline. It will probably continue some more in the absence of any signs to the contrary. There is still some ground to cover before it hits more substantial support at the lower channel line at 1.1075.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.5667. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 182 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -108.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.116. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 0% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.115 1.116 1.115 1.116 48

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.13 1.14
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 103,813 131,514 138,896

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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