Home FX Euro Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continue to see the 1.11 EUR level attract a...

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continue to see the 1.11 EUR level attract a lot of attention


Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) continue to see the 1.11 EUR level attract a lot of attention

The Euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see the 1.11 EUR level attract a lot of attention. Ultimately, this is a market that remains negative longer term, so I look at rallies as a nice selling opportunity.

The 50 day EMA above which is painted in red should be a nice selling opportunity. Overall, I think that the market will continue to grind down towards the 1.10 EUR level, especially considering that the market has been so negative for quite some time. At this point, the 1.10 EUR level also will attract a lot of attention. If we do flush below there, it’s very likely that the market continues the longer-term trend lower.

Now that we are significantly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, it’s likely that we will go looking towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level which is a little closer to the 1.05 the EUR level. With all of the problems in the European Union and of course the Germans talking about possibly doing a bit of economic stimulus, it does make sense that this pair could drop from here.

Rallies at this point are looking to be very much like selling opportunities for me, unless of course the Federal Reserve gets drastically dovish in the short term. That being said, unless something fundamentally changes I will be looking for an opportunity to sell only.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.12.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.2527. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 265 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.109. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.108 1.109 1.108 1.109 266
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 4 6 6
Volume: 74,863 76,364 117,447

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.