Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consumer inflation indicators disappoint

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consumer inflation indicators disappoint

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consumer inflation indicators disappoint

EUR/USD continues to gain ground, after starting the week with strong gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1249, up 0.06% on the day. Earlier in the day, the pair touched a high of 1.1277, its highest level since mid-April. On the release front, eurozone consumer inflation indicators disappointed. The estimate for annual inflation in May slowed to 1.2%, down from 1.7% in April. The core indicator also fell, dropping to 0.8%, after a reading of 1.2% in April. Both indicators missed their forecasts. There are no major events out of the U.S. On Wednesday, the eurozone releases retail sales, while the U.S. posts ADP nonfarm payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

The week has started out with disappointing data in the eurozone. The estimate for consumer inflation slowed in May, a reflection of weaker economic activity in Germany as well as the rest of the eurozone. The downward slide continues for German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs, which have been mired in contraction territory for most of 2019. This is a result of ongoing trade tensions, which have reduced global demand for German and eurozone exports, and dampened the manufacturing sectors.

Despite soft eurozone data this week, the euro has gained ground, courtesy of FOMC member James Bullard. The president of the St. Louis Fed was blunt and pessimistic, saying that the Fed might have to lower rates shortly due to low inflation and the ongoing trade war with China.

Bullard warned that the Fed may have to deal with “an economy that is expected to grow more slowly going forward, with some risk that the slowdown could be sharper than expected due to ongoing global trade regime uncertainty“. Bullard added that the current benchmark rate, which is at a range of 2.25% to 2.50%, is too high for current economic conditions, and recommended lowering rates in order to stabilize the economy. The dovish comments about lower rates helped boost the euro on Monday.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.1262. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 208 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 210.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.002 at 1.126. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.124 1.128 1.122 1.126 84,429

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 97,726 112,226 134,296

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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