Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) constrained by German politics, U.S. decision on ‘DST’ tax

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) constrained by German politics, U.S. decision on ‘DST’ tax

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) constrained by German politics, U.S. decision on ‘DST’ tax

The Euro was little changed for the week on Friday after a last minute rally averted the prospect of a close below the key 1.10 level, but the exchange rate is at risk of fresh declines in the days ahead, according to the charts, while political risks are again also threatening to sink the single currency. 

Europe’s unified unit was 0.02% lower on Friday, closing around 1.1013 against the Dollar after having recovered from a trip down to 1.0981 in the final noon sesssion of the week. Those earlier losses briefly took the Euro below technical support that spans the distance between 1.0987 and 1.10, which could have invited deeper losses had it closed the day beneath that support. 

It’s not clear what caused the last minute bump as there were no major economic figures or policy announcements in late noon session, although month-end flows and options expiries were at work on exchange rates amid thin volumes owing to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. and Canada. But some technical analysts at Commerzbank say the Euro could rise in the week ahead but that recent price action has left it vulnerable to a renewed push below 1.10.

“EUR/USD continues to hold over the 1.0989 mid-November low. Whilst it holds, last week’s high at 1.1097 may be revisited, a rise above which would have the 1.1180 October high in its sights. Above 1.1180 will target the 1.1255 one year channel. However the support is looking a little exposed and failure here will trigger another leg lower to the 1.0943 78.6% retracement,” says Karen Jones, head of technical analysis at Commerzbank

Technical Indictors

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.7314. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 64 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.102. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 50% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.101 1.103 1.101 1.102 892
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 2 5 6
Volume: 57,626 68,738 91,375

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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