Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consolidating at Fibonacci support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consolidating at Fibonacci support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consolidating at Fibonacci support

EUR/USD pulled back into the 76.4% retracement last week, with the price continuing to consolidate around that key support level.

The ability to remain above that level is going to be crucial in determining where we go from here, for if we break below this $1.1456 support, it would point towards a potential break into $1.1422. Should we fall below that level, it would look like we are retracing the wider rally from $1.1301. However, until that happens there is a good chance we are seeing a retracement of this short-term $1.1422-$1.1570 rally. With that in mind, we are likely to see this pair turn higher from here as long as it holds up above the 76.4% retracement.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.15.

The projected upper bound is: 1.16.

The projected lower bound is: 1.13.

The projected closing price is: 1.15.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.3321. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 108 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 42 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.147. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.147 1.148 1.146 1.147 6,922

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.16
Volatility: 10 9 8
Volume: 117,377 139,153 139,701

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.

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