Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consolidating

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consolidating

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) consolidating

The Euro market rallied during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the top of the short term range. The 50 day EMA above is painted in red, and it should continue to offer a lot of resistance. The shooting star from several days ago continues offer a major barrier, so that being the case, it makes sense that we still see sellers just above.

To the downside, the 1.10 EUR level underneath offers a target as it has also been significant support. If we break down below there, the market goes down towards the 1.09 handle. All things being equal though, the Federal Reserve has cut rates, but they weren’t as dovish as many people had hoped. It will be interesting to see how this plays out longer term but we are still very much in a downtrend and therefore it’s likely that it should play out the same. The European Union still struggles with economic slowdowns, and of course offers negative rates in the bond markets of that of course could cause some issues as well.

The 200 day EMA above would be where I would suggest that the trend will have changed, and that is well above the 1.1225 handle, so with that in mind I still favor selling short-term rallies as they come, but I’m not looking for major meltdowns. This is more of a longer-term structural grind lower, as has been the case for several years.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.

A gravestone doji occurred. This often signifies a top (the longer the upper shadow, the more bearish the signal).

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.7353. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.104. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 589
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.13
Volatility: 7 6 6
Volume: 67,964 81,019 109,773

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 53 periods.

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