Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) close above 1.1330 would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.1400

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) close above 1.1330 would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.1400

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) close above 1.1330 would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.1400

While we have expected EUR to “trade with an upside bias” for more than a week (see update on 04 Apr, spot at 1.1245), we were of the view that the “prospect for EUR to move to the next resistance at 1.1330 is deemed as low”. After struggling to move above the relatively strong 1.1300 resistance for a few days, EUR surged past this level and hit a high of 1.1325 last Friday (12 Apr).

The rapid improvement in upward momentum suggests the risk for a higher EUR has increased. From here, if EUR could close above 1.1330 in NY within these few days, it would be a strong indication that EUR is ready to challenge the next resistance at 1.1400. On the downside, only a break of the 1.1240 ‘key support’ (level was previously at 1.1220) would suggest that the current upward pressure has eased.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.2464. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 173 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 118.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.130. Volume was 56% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.130 1.131 1.128 1.130 61,893

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.13 1.14
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 117,437 138,268 140,635

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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