Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) climbing to fresh two-month-highs
Coming into the month EURUSD was one of my favored spots to look for short-side USD exposure. And this wasn’t borne from any particular optimism around the Euro-zone as much as the length of time that the bearish side of the pair has been in-favor.
Perhaps most importantly, the past few months have brought a variety of bearish triggers into the spotlight but, to date, Euro bears haven’t been able to make much of a mark. This produces a backdrop ripe for short-squeeze scenarios which is what appears that we have in-front of us.
EURUSD is climbing to fresh two-month-highs, making a fast advance towards the longer-term zone of range resistance at 1.1448-1.1500. This move is likely taking a number of trailed stops out along the way; and once prices perch above the 1.1500 psychological level, the ground may be open for sellers to return.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.
The projected upper bound is: 1.15.
The projected lower bound is: 1.13.
The projected closing price is: 1.14.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 96.0938. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 223 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 148.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed unchanged at 1.140. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 61% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.140 1.140 1.139 1.140 1,686
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 62,631 94,204 129,573
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.