Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) central bankers from around the world are discussing monetary policy, will have a massive effect on where things go next

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) central bankers from around the world are discussing monetary policy, will have a massive effect on where things go next

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) central bankers from around the world are discussing monetary policy, will have a massive effect on where things go next

The Euro went back and forth during trading on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise just below the 1.11 handle. That being the case it looks as if the market is still going to struggle to find its direction in the short term. As the Jackson Hole Symposium is getting underway in Wyoming, central bankers from around the world are discussing monetary policy, which of course will have a massive effect on where things go next.

All things being equal I do think that we go lower though, because quite frankly the Euro has a ton of trouble attached to it. At the very least we have low demand for negative yielding bonds coming out of Germany. The interest rate differential alone drives the US dollar higher as so many bonds out there are issuing negative yield that Treasuries look rather good. That of course drives up demand for the US dollar, so it’s a bit of a feedback cycle.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.12.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.5307. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 266 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.108. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 0% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.108 1.108 1.108 1.108 989
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 3 6 6
Volume: 74,170 76,617 117,071

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 33 periods.

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