Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) catching a bit of a bounce with 1.1000 support in close vicinity

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) catching a bit of a bounce with 1.1000 support in close vicinity

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) catching a bit of a bounce with 1.1000 support in close vicinity

US Consumer Confidence Figures Can Trigger Some Volatility

The week ahead is expected to be a slow one volatility wise. This is mostly because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the second half of the week that will have many traders take some time away from the markets.

As is typical in a holiday week, the economic calendar is quite light. Later today, the latest consumer confidence figures will be released from the US. This release might just be the highlight of the week.

I think we might see a jump in volatility after the release but it’s quite likely that this will fade quickly. After that, I’m speculating that EUR/USD prices will hold in a tight range for the remainder of the week.

There are quite a few data releases tomorrow, including GDP figures, PCE price index data and the Chicago PMI, although these figures typically do not trigger a sustained reaction in the markets.

Technical Analysis

The rejection last week near 1.1072 was a big one and I think it will tend to keep bearish pressure on the pair over the near-term. A level that I have my eye on for the week ahead is at 1.1053. This is the lower bound of a range that played out for most of last week. I consider it to be major resistance for the pair if it were to get there.

It might take some form of a catalyst to change the sentiment in EUR/USD and for a pickup in volatility. One potential source might be UK politics as the election in Britain is just over two weeks away.

In the meantime, I think EUR/USD presents a clear bearish bias. The pair failed to hold above a rising trendline yesterday that originates from a low printed in early October. There is still some potential for a bounce in the pair but I think it is clear that buyers are showing reluctance to defend support areas for the pair.

A big focal point for EUR/USD will be the 1.1000 area and if the exchange rate can get below the low set mid-month. For the week ahead, I think it might be tough to see such a move materialize. Mostly because EUR/USD has been trading in tight ranges for the past few weeks and I think the holiday later this week ensures low volatility.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.0220. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 60 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.102. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.101 1.102 1.100 1.102 59,231
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 3 5 6
Volume: 65,698 70,430 93,435

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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