Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) but at the 1.12 handle

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) but at the 1.12 handle

The Euro rolled over a bit during the trading session on Monday, as the pair of shooting star candles foretold of selling pressure. That being the case, we will probably reach down towards the bottom of the overall consolidation area, which is closer to the 1.12 handle. Somewhere just above there, I am willing to step into this market and start buying. Ultimately, I believe that the 1.15 level above is massive resistance, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the market reached towards that area only to roll over again.

We have the 200 day EMA at that area, which of course is a very negative sign. At this point, it’s very likely that we will see a lot of technical selling in that area. Beyond that, we have the European Central Bank looking very unlikely to tighten in the short term, so I think were essentially watching a market bounced back and forth because of the lack of hawkish behavior from either central bank.

I think trading back and forth should be the way to go, and overall this is a great range bound trading market. I don’t see anything that’s going to jump in and make this market break out, but if we do see some type of breakout, then it should be a longer-term move. I currently believe that we have more of an upward bias on the break out, mainly because of the difference in the Federal Reserve. However, until we get out of this 300 point range, I’m going to enjoy your profits at the extreme edges.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.6299. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.05. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 143 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.132. Volume was 57% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.134 1.135 1.131 1.132 62,000

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 3 7 8
Volume: 137,733 141,967 143,932

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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