Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) busy week ahead

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) busy week ahead

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) busy week ahead

For the Dollar, it’s a busy week ahead, with key stats including wholesale inflation and NY State PMI numbers on Tuesday, December retail sales figures on Wednesday and the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI and housing sector figures on Thursday. Following a choppy few weeks in the markets and with the government shut down extending into the week, prelim consumer sentiment figures on Friday will garner plenty of interest, with December industrial production numbers also of interest at the end of the week. Outside the numbers, Oval Office chatter and any further updates on trade will also be of influence through the week. FOMC members scheduled to speak through week could add some downward pressure on the Dollar as FED members look to hit the brakes. The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down 0.55% to $95.67.

For the EUR, it’s a busy week ahead. Outside of finalized December inflation numbers due out of France, Spain, Italy and Germany from Tuesday through Friday, Eurozone industrial production figures on Monday and trade data on Tuesday will provide direction ahead of the Eurozone’s inflation numbers on Thursday. Some disappointing numbers out of Germany may well filter through, which could pin the EUR back through the week, with 4th quarter GDP numbers due out of Germany and France on Monday. On the policy front, ECP President Draghi is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. The EUR/USD ended the week up 0.65% to $1.1469.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.15.

The projected upper bound is: 1.16.

The projected lower bound is: 1.13.

The projected closing price is: 1.15.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.2945. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 107 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 41 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.146. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.147 1.147 1.144 1.146 2,207

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.16
Volatility: 10 9 8
Volume: 105,505 139,640 139,780

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.

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