Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) bullish view put forward

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) bullish view put forward

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) bullish view put forward

The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout seen in EUR/USD’s 4-hour chart validates the bullish view put forward by the falling channel breakout on Monday and represents a bearish-to-bullish trend change (transition from lower highs and lower lows to higher highs and higher lows). 

As a result, the common currency could rise to 1.14 in the next day or two. The bullish case would weaken if the spot finds acceptance under the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, currently at 1.1330. 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.9614. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 134 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -3. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.133. Volume was 71% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 17% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.134 1.136 1.133 1.133 41,353

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 6 8 8
Volume: 131,643 141,544 144,293

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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