Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) bounce has plenty of resistance to contend with
The Euro continues to be a difficult handle with volatility extremely low. The 3-month percentage range is the smallest it’s been since the doldrums of 2014. We may not be in for a massive move like the one that began then, but we are certainly nearing a point where EUR/USD should make a sizable swing.
In the mean-time, laying low isn’t a bad idea to avoid suffering a ‘death by a thousand cuts.’ However, low-vol range environments might favor your trading style, in which case more of the same may favor your strategy. But be on the watch-out, though, for an expansion in range.
Looking lower, with some more time and shape-shifting the channel since November could morph into another bear-flag. But even then, we’ll need to see serious market participation push the Euro down before getting excited about jumping board a trend continuation.
In the week ahead, it may be more of the same, with the trend-lines from March and September both running over top Thursday’s high at right around the same levels. On a break of this confluence lies another even strong confluence; the 200-day, January high at 11570, and upper parallel all align in a tight window. This would be a good spot to see sellers emerge again.
On a drop lower, the lower parallel and the 11289 level will be viewed as support and may keep a floor in the Euro. If the aforementioned levels give-way on either side, then we may have something bigger on our hands brewing…
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.16.
The projected lower bound is: 1.13.
The projected closing price is: 1.15.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.6448. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 122 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.145. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.145 1.146 1.145 1.145 247
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.16
Volatility: 8 8 8
Volume: 148,119 143,090 142,344
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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