Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) back to 1.1212 support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) back to 1.1212 support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) back to 1.1212 support

In contrast to the breakdown in GBP/USD looked at above, EUR/USD has seen a more moderate pullback to a prior zone of support. This is the same zone that’s been in-play as both support and resistance since coming back into the equation in November of last year.

More recently, this zone has shown as support over the past month with a series of higher-lows printing. The bottom-portion of the zone at 1.1187 helped to catch the swing-low just ahead of last month’s FOMC rate decision. And then the bullish USD theme that showed into last week’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony produced another higher-low, and so far with this current round of USD-strength, yet another.

If this higher-low support can hold, this keeps the door open for bullish strategies in EUR/USD, and this could remain as one of the more attractive short-USD options amongst major currency pairs given current technical construction.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.4190. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 240 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.123. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.122 1.123 1.122 1.123 2,845

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 67,032 81,152 124,423

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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