Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Attempting to End Four Day Winning Streak
EUR/USD rose in a recovery last week but was met with a hurdle of resistance late in the week near the 1.1000 handle. The pair is under a bit of pressure in early trading on Monday and is on pace to end a four consecutive day winning streak.
The pair saw a bit of selling on Friday following the US jobs report when the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 3.5%. However, buyers stepped in near 1.0966 support to keep the pair within a range.
Earlier today, German factory orders were reported to decline 0.6% in August which was below the analyst estimate for a decline of 0.4%. Economic data for the Euro area as of late has been mostly weaker and its starting to become a bit of a trend.
The highlight this week, in terms of economic data, will tend to be meeting minutes from the last central bank meetings in the US and Europe. As well, the latest US consumer price index figures will be released late in the week.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.
The projected upper bound is: 1.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1.09.
The projected closing price is: 1.10.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.4767. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.097. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.097 1.100 1.096 1.097 63,416
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.12
Volatility: 6 6 6
Volume: 68,891 81,176 106,733
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 64 periods.
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