Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) at fresh weekly lows and bearish, break below 1.0800 likely

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) at fresh weekly lows and bearish, break below 1.0800 likely

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) at fresh weekly lows and bearish, break below 1.0800 likely

A decisive positive candle got the EUR/USD rally back on track yesterday. The thin volume of the Easter trading period questioned the strength of the near term recovery. However, the bulls fought back really well yesterday in a move which is now threatening to open the legs of the recovery once more. We have been concerned that the resistance in the band $1.1960/$1.1980 would restrict how the recovery developed, but the bulls are in the driving seat of this move now.

Leaving aside the thin volume days of the Easter bank holidays, the euro has climbed strongly in three out of four candles. Pressure is growing on $1.1980 for a decisive breakout. As the Europeans take over this morning, there has been a mild slip back, but on the hourly chart this shows as a pullback to a near term breakout of $1.0965.

There is a six day uptrend at $1.0935 this morning, and any unwinding move on hourly RSI around 40/50 has been a chance to buy during this uptrend. Initial support is around $1.0950/$1.0965. The bulls will have lost control under $1.0925 and the outlook turns corrective under $1.0890. Above $1.0990 the next resistance is $1.1040.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.06.

The projected closing price is: 1.08.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.7584. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.083. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 0% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.083 1.088 1.082 1.083 46,408
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.09 1.10 1.11
Volatility: 10 14 8
Volume: 102,095 110,408 80,297

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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