Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) All Over The Place After Lack Of Cut

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) All Over The Place After Lack Of Cut

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) All Over The Place After Lack Of Cut

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but then fell below the 1.1250 level, only to bounce again during the announcement and then sell off again. The Euro continues to look a bit overvalued, but with Christine Largarde failing to cut rates for the European Central Bank, it did cause a little bit of strength during the day. At this point, it’s difficult to understand where we go next, because it is going to come down to the markets perception of liquidity provisions taken by the ECB.

At this point in time, the markets continue to be very uncertain, and the Euro probably needs to be priced according to whether or not the Federal Reserve cuts rates further. The market is projecting that the Fed is going to do that, so it’s very possible that the Euro will be resilient going forward. The 200 day EMA sits at the 1.11 level so I would anticipate that level to be of significant support. To the upside, the most obvious resistance barrier is the 1.15 handle, and we are currently right in the middle, making this a bit of a neutral market.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 33.2801. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.119. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 219% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.118 1.120 1.118 1.119 476
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.12 1.10 1.11
Volatility: 16 9 7
Volume: 108,835 78,790 73,174

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 0.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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