The Euro to Dollar exchange rate went almost nowhere last week as Sterling’s losses, weakness in stock markets and European Central Bank (ECB) currency concerns scuppered Europe’s unified unit, which was last seen swimming out into deep water with ball and chains around both ankles.
Europe’s single currency saw three solid days of recovery into the weekend but ended the week on Friday with less than a 0.1% gain for the period after Sterling suffered its steepest losses since March, which lifted the trade weighted Euro during a week dominated by ECB concerns about exchange rate strength.
But with Brexit back in the mix for investors and threatening further losses for Sterling, which is more than 15% of the trade-weighted Euro, the exchange rate that matters most to the ECB in the coming weeks without the Euro-to-Dollar rate having to do much of anything at all.
The Euro should follow developments impacting the Dollar Index over the coming months as the U.S. election draws near, and that any victory by opposition candidate Joe Biden can be expected to weigh heavier on the Dollar and might serve to lift the EUR/USD as far as 1.25 by year-end if it comes alongside early approval of a coronavirus vaccine. The single currency is likely to dip back to 1.15 by year-end but rise to 1.25 by September 2021, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts.
The Dollar has a well established history of appreciation ahead of presidential elections while President Donald Trump’s polling disadvantage has recently eased, although his prospects have continued to take on water, and the Euro-to-Dollar rate has a negative correlation with the Dollar Index, of which it is a 57% share. Few if any polls gave Trump a chance of winning in 2016.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 51.5153. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -7. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.185. Volume was 87% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.184 1.185 1.183 1.185 14,041
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.17 1.12 Volatility: 4 7 9 Volume: 89,832 99,106 97,932
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 5.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
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