The US dollar continues to dominate global trade, but underlying confidence in the US currency has weakened.
US dollar reserves amounted to $6.937 trillion in the third quarter of 2020, or 60.4% of allocated global reserves from $6.899 trillion and 61.2% for the second quarter.
Credit Suisse remains bearish on the dollar outlook and expects further losses for 2021 as a whole, although it expects respite for the US dollar early in 2021. Credit Suisse also expects that there will be tough EUR/USD resistance in the 1.2500 area.
“With heavy long positioning still in place, we expect this to remain a formidable barrier, suggesting the EUR may not be the best expression of USD weakness during 2021.”
It is true that the dollar will one day lose its status, as was the case with every global reserve currency before it, but the chances of this happening in our lifetime are exceedingly low. The depth of dollar dominance is overwhelming and shows no immediate signs of drying up, even in the aftermath of COVID-19.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.19.
The projected upper bound is: 1.24.
The projected lower bound is: 1.21.
The projected closing price is: 1.23.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 5 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.4817. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.225. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.222 1.225 1.221 1.225 25,636
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.22 1.20 1.15 Volatility: 6 7 8 Volume: 115,615 112,001 109,643
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 37 periods.