$EUR #Euro #USD #FX #Currencies #Trading #Markets #ECB
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate almost came undone last week and is widely expected to remain on the defensive ahead of Thursday’s policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB), which has voiced concerns about the single currency’s strength and could now attempt to squash its rally.
Europe’s unified unit clocked its highest level since early 2018 last Tuesday but was undermined midweek when ECB chief economist Philip Lane said the EUR/USD rate matters, even though the bank doesn’t seek to manage exchange rates, because of the impact it has on growth and inflation.
Lane’s comments incited fears of a sustained attempt by the ECB to push the Euro lower and have put the market on notice ahead of the September policy decision due at 12:45 Thursday which, along with the 13:30 press conference, is the highlight of the week.
Rising exchange rates are sometimes a problem for policymakers because they disadvantage a country’s exports by making them more expensive while hampering inflation outlook by reducing import costs and eventually, consumer prices.
The ECB has rarely met its target since the debt crisis, like many others, but may be more sensitive to a rallying currency than peers because it’s seen as having some of the most limited capacity to provide support to its economy.
Before the ECB’s address the Euro might be likely to take cues from stock markets that crumbled in the latter half of last week as well as German, French and Italian industrial production numbers for July. Those are out at 07:00 Monday before 07:45 and 09:00 on Thursday respectively. The data will indicate the extent to which the Eurozone industrial recovery slowed in July after strong rebounds in production were seen across the geographic board in June.
Meanwhile, the Euro enters the week leaving behind it on the charts a topping pattern that warns of a possible reversal of the uptrend. Commerzbank’s Jones sold the Euro at 1.1905 and is targeting a fall to 1.1730 that leaves its upside bias intact, although others see risks of it falling below there.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.19.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.18.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.0556. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.180. Volume was 89% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.181 1.182 1.180 1.180 11,654
Technical Outlook Short Term: Oversold Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.19 1.17 1.12 Volatility: 6 7 9 Volume: 88,433 99,440 96,968
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 5.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.